Assessing the contract in duplicate

Duplicate is a ‘first past the post’ competition. You can win a top score on a hand by being 10 points ahead of other scores and you can have the bottom score on the hand by being 10 points below the other scores.

When the dummy is revealed you should decide if your partnership has bid for the normal contract or if you have bid for an unusual contract.

If you have bid an unusual contract, you will then need to work out whether to play safe to make your contract or if you make a risky play for an overtrick that will cost you your contract if it fails.

If you have stretched to reach a game or slam that is unlikely to be bid by other pairs, you should play safely to make your contract. The score you make from making your contract will give you a top on the hand.

Example: You are west with ♠KQJ1063 J4 A10 ♣J64. After you open 1♠, partner bids 2, then after your rebid of 2♠, partner bids 4NT. After your reply of 5♠ showing two key cards and ♠Q, east bids 6♠.

North leads 3 and the dummy east reveals ♠A6 AQ85 KQJ96 ♣82. You can see that partner has overbid and that 4♠ is the normal contract. It is unlikely that a slam will be reached by another pair.

Your slam would have no chance if north had led a club as north-south could easily win the first two tricks in clubs to defeat you.

If you make your slam you will have the top score so play safely to make your contract. What is your plan? Should you take the heart finesse at the first trick?

Count your tricks. You have six winning spade tricks and five diamond tricks. With A, you have twelve tricks. This will be sufficient to make 6♠. So win A, draw trumps, play A then the rest of the dummy’s diamonds.

You should not take the heart finesse as you will risk your slam contract. If south wins K, south will certainly switch to a club and you will lose two club tricks to be two down.

When should you risk all on a finesse? If you think you are in an unusual contract that may score less than the normal contract then it is important to assess the likely score for the normal contract and try to beat that score.

Example: You are west with ♠A83 K942 AKJ3 ♣J3. After you open 1NT, partner bids 3NT. North leads ♠2 and the dummy east reveals ♠K105 AQJ3 Q2 ♣9872. You play east’s ♠5, south plays ♠J and you win ♠A.

Is 3NT the normal contract with your partnership’s cards?

No, east should have used the Stayman Convention. East would have discovered the heart fit and bid 4. How many tricks will 4 make?

Probably eleven tricks as there are only two losing club tricks. After drawing trumps, the declarer can play west’s diamonds, discarding east’s losing spade. West can then trump a spade with east’s last trump.

Count your tricks in notrumps. You have four heart tricks, four diamond tricks and two spade tricks for a total of ten tricks. If 4 makes eleven tricks, you will also need to make eleven tricks in 3NT.

If you only make ten tricks in 3NT you will score 630 points which will be a bottom as it is outscored by the 650 points the other pairs will make from taking eleven tricks in 4.

To outscore 650 points you need to make eleven tricks in 3NT. The extra trick can come from finessing in spades. After the first trick you are left with ♠83 in west and ♠K10 in east. Lead ♠3 from west. When north plays ♠7, try east’s ♠10 and hope for the best.

If east’s ♠10 wins, you will make eleven tricks for a top score! Winning eleven tricks in 3NT scores 660 points and the other pairs have only 650 points from taking eleven tricks in 4.

© 2022 John Roberts